Wednesday, November 7, 2012

SAIS Bologna keeps watchful eye on U.S. elections

Even from afar, SAIS Bologna kept an eagle eye on the U.S. elections.

Little matter the nationality: students stayed up all night at the Center on November 6 to watch the results roll in.

The start of a long electoral vigil
Prof. Erik Jones, speaking to a packed auditorium, delivered a post-dinner, pre-returns analysis of forces shaping U.S. electoral politics.

Prof. John Harper participated in an election-night event at the U.S. Consulate in Milan that was piped in to the SAIS Bologna auditorium.

Ph.D candidate Neil Sheenai responded to a challenge from Prof. Harper and delivered a rousing and articulate defense of one of the presidential candidates to the listeners in Milan and at SAIS Bologna.

Students held an electoral map contest, organized by the Student Government Association (SGA). Here is a rundown of the results by SGA member Max Cohen:

In the U.S. presidential election, it all came down to Ohio, but in the SAIS Bologna Center election prediction contest, all eyes remained on Florida.

Fifteen bolognesi channeled their inner Nate Silver and submitted maps to the SGA, predicting the election outcome in each state and the District of Columbia. For every state that they correctly predicted, they were awarded a number of points equaling that state’s electoral votes.

Though the results aren’t final, it appears that President Obama has a small lead in Florida, meaning we have a tie for first place between Michael Eschmann and Ally Carragher, who both accurately predicted who would win all 538 electoral votes.

If it turns out that Romney wins Florida, we would also have a tie, this time between Alex Weaver and Tristram Thomas.

There was quite a bit of uniformity between the predictions submitted by our entrants. All entrants were in agreement that President Obama would win the key swing states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada and New Hampshire.

Here is a map showing what the average entrant thought would happen in the election. Assuming Florida ends up in the Obama column, it is the only state that a majority of entrants predicted incorrectly:

No comments: